Some thoughts on crypto since I haven't posted anything in a while. Lately, I've been operating based on the idea that having no position is also a position. I don't always want to be invested or deploy my capital into just any normal project, focusing instead on long-term views and plays while staying less active in the day-to-day market grind. I like to time the overall market in the higher time frame. Sure, you could argue that taking profits into usd/stables means dealing with inflation and other stuff, and yeah, I kinda agree. But let's do that debate for another day. What I really mean is that these days, I'm not jumping from one coin to another or chasing every hot narrative. I'm not juggling 5-10 different holdings, and I'm definitely not deep in the trenches hunting for those 100k-5m market cap shitcoins anymore. i'm very selective about my plays and investments. I'm not investing a small amount just to be invested something. i want something unique to go all in or allocate a big amount. I think crypto has evolved a ton over the past few years. in how people feel about it emotionally, the narratives that drive it, and even the smartest ways to play it. Most of my gains in recent years came from buying Solana right at the bottom, selling near the top, then converting those profits into Hyperliquid when it launched and riding that wave all the way up. It sounds easy when I type it out like that lol but i think it's the intuition and lessons from being active in this space for 9-10 years that made it possible? So, what's on my mind now? Narratives shift way faster these days, so I'm not about to glue myself to a trade and hope it pays off eventually. Either I'm quick to get in and out of a play, or if I spot something I think I'm early on, I set a strict time limit for invalidation like, if it doesn't move in X months, I'm out. I've seen killer tech and brilliant ideas flop hard because the market just didn't care; people ignored them, liquidity dried up, and my investments went to near zero. The key takeaway? What the market actually wants matters way more than tech alone. "Attention and momentum are everything." in terms of MEMEs, you can make all the money you want from these meme coins but at the end don't remember to sell. i see my friends lose a shit ton on memes because their forget that the narrative will change a week or two from now and their "funny" meme will no be funny anymore. people will not give a f anymore. *Another belief I have right now that might rub some people the wrong way is that certain major narratives and use cases have pretty much found their "final boss" apps. the ones that dominate and aren't getting dethroned anytime soon, unless something revolutionary comes along (which I doubt will happen easily or quickly). For example, take prediction markets: Polymarket is the king. There are tons of other ones popping up on different chains, but do they have real user attention? Nope. If you're broke and hoping for a quick airdrop or freebie from a newbie platform, that's one thing. I get the hustle. (altho i argue that trying normal platform is also waste of time) But I'm not touching any other prediction market token betting it'll overtake Polymarket. Same vibe with DEXes: Hyperliquid has straight-up won that race. I'm not buying into dYdX, Drift, or any other DEX tokens hoping they'll flip the script. New DEXes launch on fresh chains all the time, but most end up shutting down or fading into obscurity. Going after the established leader isn't a bad bet in theory, but the risk-reward ratio and the massive effort these teams pour in? Just not worth it anymore, in my opinion. They'd be smarter to build on top of winners like Hyperliquid. integrate, improve, or expand them instead of starting from scratch. But hey, this is crypto. folks love spinning up new projects to raise funds and, let's be real, sometimes rug or extract value, even if they know deep down it's doomed. On the Layer 1 front? Solana's captured a huge chunk of the pie. All those people who ditched Ethereum for Sol because ETH was slow, clunky UI/UX, and just frustrating. they're not jumping ship again anytime soon. Why would they? Solana fixed those pain points with speed and better experiences. A new chain would have to offer something insanely better, but Sol's already fast enough for most folks. I don't see another mass migration happening. Overall, I think from here on out, only the truly extraordinary projects and apps will grab attention and capital flow. We're talking stuff that's obviously unique in every way: top tier tech, killer UI/UX, strong community vibes the whole package. Being "just another" DEX, prediction market, or swap protocol won't cut it; they won't pull in enough users or hype to survive. Investing in or buying tokens for those average plays? Total waste of time and energy in my opinion. *Instead, chill on the sidelines and wait for that rare gem to deploy your capital. Remember, having no position is a valid position too better than forcing a bad one. That said, trading these things short-term without getting emotionally attached is totally different from long-term investing or holding. I'm mostly talking about the latter here. But even for long-term bets, circle back to that core idea. Build that conviction, sure, but always keep in mind you're here to make money. At some point, you've gotta sell and lock in those gains. Yeah that's what's been rattling around in my head for a while.