My thoughts on where we are in the bull cycle to a friend:
Iâm all in the market at this point, no cap.
I just canât picture this bull run wrapping up anytime soon. Not with gold sitting where it is and tech stocks exploding like they have. Cryptoâs gonna chase that momentum hard. This macro setup is the strongest Iâve seen in years.
Russell 2000 smashing all-time highs, stuff like $ARKK lighting up;risk-on mode is just kicking off. Wouldnât shock me if we ride this wave all through next year.
Trumpâs gonna juice everything to the max. Weâre probably headed for a massive blow-off top. Business cycleâs still dragging, tons of upside potential. Those Philly Fed numbers today? Straight garbage. Theyâll crank the money printer like crazy, with all that deflation baked into the lagging data.
Itâs nuts how downbeat the crypto crowd is right now; theyâve thrown in the towel and are piling into tech/AI plays and gold instead. Everyoneâs chanting âno altseason incoming.â Feels like classic mid-curve bearishness to me, jumping off too early.
I legit believe weâre on the edge of full parabola mode. Volâs spiking hard, VIX climbing, big crypto swings ahead. Fearâs everywhere. Folks screaming âstock bubbleâ left and right. Shitâs about to go insane in 2026z Maybe Iâve ODâd on that bull copium. But Iâm going all-in, no regrets.
Snagged a bunch of $BMNR shares and $ETHA March calls today (figuring $ETH hits at least 8k by then, maybe 15-20k cycle peak). Thatâs my mindset. BTC should cling to its MAs too. OI and leverage got wrecked already. Fundingâs flipped negative, basically paying you to lever up. Greed/fear gauge dipped into fear mode today.
Just my take, but Mark Newton (Tom Leeâs quant wizard) sees markets grinding up till November, maybe a sideways dip mid-month, then pure euphoria into year-end. Heâs calling BTC 150k and ETH 8k; Tom Leeâs at 250k BTC and 10-12k ETH. Dudeâs been in god-mode on market calls since early 2023.
I view all this as a timing game, like Russian roulette with the markets. Year-end feels like a slam-dunk bet. If parabola hits, Iâll dial back the leverage hard. Then it stretches out month by month, riskier each time. Planning major profit-taking by April at the soonest. But if Iâm dead wrong, Iâll ride the round-trip and hodl through the cycle. Got heavy tech exposure too; Iâm split 50/50 crypto/tech, so bag-holding a couple years and margin-covering bills is no problem.
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