Orange Evening Interpretation 7.31 The market has entered the stage of falling at night and rising during the day, the trend of these two days is basically the same, as soon as it comes to the time of US stocks, the market began to collapse, the premium of CB to BN has also disappeared, ETFs have not had much money coming in these days, BTC has a net inflow of tens of millions every day in the past two days, and the inflow of Ethereum last night was only 580w, which can almost reflect that the interest of US institutions in crypto is weakening Of course, this is also understandable, after all, there are too many macro events this week, institutions also have to temporarily avoid the edge, and BTC, Ethereum has not fallen much, and it will rebound back soon after falling a little, after all, there are still Asian funds at the bottom, but the copycats are miserable, many have returned to the historical low range, enlarged to the weekly line, basically only mainstream copycats, such as with ETFs, treasuries or projects with grayscale, WLFI and other projects that have cooperation with the right track army have gone out of the bottom, The old coins that don't want anything on CEX are lying dead, there is no appearance of entering the bull market at all, and the weekly level is not even confirmed at the bottom, which is the current differentiation of the market, as long as institutions do not buy, the market will inevitably go to a shock correction, and then the copycat will collapse collectively, and the liquidity will be gone. But last night's wave of decline is still reasonable, after all, the FOMC meeting was hawkish beyond expectations, I also said in yesterday's article, 11 people voted, there are already two clear cards in favor of interest rate cuts, in fact, the probability of interest rate cuts is 2/11, but I didn't expect that the final vote really only 2 votes in favor of interest rate cuts, isn't it said that the Fed is divided into 3 factions, co-authors are all acting, and they all join the anti-Trump group at critical moments, and beat Trump's face enough, after all, Trump was still singing doves before the FOMC. The article said that he heard that the Fed would cut interest rates in September. But Powell did not give any face at all, directly saying that he would not make any predictions and guidance, tariffs pushed up the prices of some commodities, inflation may be short-lived, or it may be more persistent, and the data needs to continue to be observed. In short, there is a lot of talk about the wheel, and it is announced to the world that the Fed is very independent and not affected by Trump, so after the FOMC, CME lowered the probability of a rate cut in September, the probability of a rate cut before the meeting was about 65%, and the probability after the meeting dropped to 43%, which goes without saying that it must be a big bearish for the currency market, after all, everyone is looking forward to the second half of the interest rate cut bull, now CME expects a high probability of only one interest rate cut at the end of the year, and two interest rate cuts have exceeded expectations, and the previous market generally believed that it was Jiangxi 2-3 times, And the interest rate cut in September is a high probability event, which is why the 2 o'clock BTC crashed from 11w8 to 11w5 last night. Then talk about other macros, first of all, tariff negotiations, last night the United States and South Korea reached an agreement, 15% tariff + 350 billion investment, and then try 25% tariff sanctions on India, on the grounds that India buys Russian energy on the opposite side of the world, and then tariffs on the United States are very high, so it must be suppressed; imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil, and it is said that Brazil will counteract and appeal to the WTO organization; In addition, last night also released Q2 GDP data and PCE price index, both of which were better than expected, and the ADP small non-farm payrolls in July also exceeded expectations, these data are considered small positives, and last night's rise before FOMC was because of this; U.S. stocks Microsoft and Meta both released financial reports and good data, and stocks rose sharply, which also drove the Nasdaq to close higher as a whole. Last night, the White House released the first digital asset report, which was originally highly anticipated, and the market expected some content on how to reserve cryptocurrencies, but this report was not at all, it was all empty words, which mentioned the Genius and clarity bills, as well as the SEC and CFTC to improve the regulatory gaps, as well as some tax regulations, but the market is looking forward to the source of funds for crypto reserves, which is the most important, this report does not mention it. However, the good thing is that DeFi is mentioned, saying that there is great potential for integrating DeFi technology, that is, a fast, automated platform for crypto lending, into the mainstream financial system. This is one of the highlights, but the market doesn't pay for it much. Finally, the market, although the macro environment is unstable, but the trend of Ethereum is still very good, even if the ETF did not have any net inflow yesterday, but the status of ETH is established, now BlackRock has held $11.3 billion worth of ETH spot, accounting for 2.46%, bmnr set a few days ago to reserve 5% of the ETH supply, that is, about 500w pieces, now bmnr holdings are only more than 600,000, there is still a long way to go, sbet is 100w pieces, Now around 40w, these news all point to the future ETH is still deflationary and scarce, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still above 0.032, which is still quite stable, and holding ETH is still the most stable and excellent investment in the long run; The biggest positive for altcoins last night was the SEC's new trading platform filing document announcing the listing standards for cryptocurrency ETPs, which stated that any token listed on the Coinbase derivatives platform and futures trading lasts for 6 months has the hope of approval of its ETF. This basically means that the next altcoin ETF listing will be very smooth, CB will become the platform most concerned by global funds, and there are currently more than a dozen mainstream tokens that meet the conditions specified by the SEC, namely LTC\BCH\DOGE\DOT\SHIB\AVAX\LINK\XLM\SOL\HBAR\ADA\XRP, which are basically stable. In the past, if the ETF was required by the project party to dock with ETF institutions, now it is ETF institutions staring at CB to find it, so the next copycat season is likely to start here.