The problem with "maximizing EV" is that's it's invariably analogous to a martingale, and outside a frictionless vacuum it's non-ergodic: you'll visit a catastrophic failure that prevents you from continuing before you visit +infinity
see: EA's relationship with SBF
SBF kept failing upwards by taking double-or-nothing bets, there was always a larger backer to bail him out
until one day, there wasn't one and he couldn't continue his martingale
ergodicity is a property a system can have where all points it will eventually visit vary only by starting conditions
non-ergodicity is a property where the points a system will eventually visit are affected by path-dependent events that happen along the way
TC: Ok, but let’s say there’s a game: 51% you double the Earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears. And would you keep on playing that game, double or nothing?
SBF: Yeah…take the pure hypothetical… yeah.
TC: So then you keep on playing the game. What’s the chance we’re left with anything? Don’t I just St. Petersburg Paradox you into non-existence?
SBF: No, not necessarily – maybe [we’re] St. Petersburg-paradoxed into an enormously valuable existence. That’s the other option.
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