Are markets topped ?
Memecoins running into billions in market cap have historically lined up with market tops.
In May 2021, #Dogecoin peaked, reaching an ATH of $98.47B FDV.
Right after, in the same month, Bitcoin dropped 48%.
Then came #ShibaInu. In October 2021, SHIB ran to a $54B FDV.
What followed:
Nov 2021 → BTC dropped 7%
Dec 2021 → BTC dropped 18.85%
Jan 2022 → BTC dropped 16.77%
From the Nov 2021 high to Dec 2022 low, Bitcoin was down 76%.
So at least in the May run (DOGE) and the October run (SHIB), memecoins going multi-billions marked the top.
Next major meme run was - #WIF ( Ansem's Shill 😝)
In March 2024, WIF peaked at $4.86B FDV.
By April, BTC was already down 14.88%, and from April through August it had an overall 34% drawdown.
Again proving the point: whenever memes go euphoric, the market is near the top.
But late 2024 was different. Instead of one meme exploding, a wave of them crossed the billion mark:
#FLOKI — ATH in June 2024
#BONK — ATH in November 2024
#PEPE — ATH in December 2024
#BABYDOGE — ATH in December 2024
#POPCAT — ATH in November 2024
#Fartcoin — ATH in January 2025
And then came the final boss: $TRUMP.
In January 2025, Trump memecoin peaked at $56B FDV
What followed was textbook:
BTC dropped 17.65% in February
From the Jan high through April, a total 31% drawdown.
Now here we are again. $BTC and $ETH have made new ATHs, but we still haven’t seen the big euphoric meme run to multi-billions.
That phase is still missing. And history suggests, once we see it, that will mark the top.
Btw everyone has their own opinion of judging the tops, some choose indicators some choose the Fear/Greed index etc, I prefer judging the euphoric run.
Whatever it maybe, just don't roundtrip this cycle for the sake of your family.
@criptopaul Should agree here on my views.
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