My thoughts on where we are in the bull cycle to a friend: I’m all in the market at this point, no cap. I just can’t picture this bull run wrapping up anytime soon. Not with gold sitting where it is and tech stocks exploding like they have. Crypto’s gonna chase that momentum hard. This macro setup is the strongest I’ve seen in years. Russell 2000 smashing all-time highs, stuff like $ARKK lighting up; risk-on mode is just kicking off. Wouldn’t shock me if we ride this wave all through next year. Trump’s gonna juice everything to the max. We’re probably headed for a massive blow-off top. Business cycle’s still dragging, tons of upside potential. Those Philly Fed numbers today? Straight garbage. They’ll crank the money printer like crazy, with all that deflation baked into the lagging data. It’s nuts how downbeat the crypto crowd is right now; they’ve thrown in the towel and are piling into tech/AI plays and gold instead. Everyone’s chanting “no altseason incoming.” Feels like classic mid-curve bearishness to me, jumping off too early. I legit believe we’re on the edge of full parabola mode. Vol’s spiking hard, VIX climbing, big crypto swings ahead. Fear’s everywhere. Folks screaming “stock bubble” left and right. Shit’s about to go insane in 2026. Maybe I’ve OD’d on that bull copium. But I’m going all-in, no regrets. Snagged a bunch of $BMNR shares and $ETHA March calls today (figuring $ETH hits at least 8k by then, maybe 15-20k cycle peak). That’s my mindset. BTC should cling to its MAs too. OI and leverage got wrecked already. Funding’s flipped negative, basically paying you to lever up. Greed/fear gauge dipped into fear mode today. Just my take, but Mark Newton (Tom Lee’s quant wizard) sees markets grinding up till November, maybe a sideways dip mid-month, then pure euphoria into year-end. He’s calling BTC 150k and ETH 8k; Tom Lee’s at 250k BTC and 10-12k ETH. Dude’s been in god-mode on market calls since early 2023. I view all this as a timing game, like Russian roulette with the markets. Year-end feels like a slam-dunk bet. If parabola hits, I’ll dial back the leverage hard. Then it stretches out month by month, riskier each time. Planning major profit-taking by April at the soonest. But if I’m dead wrong, I’ll ride the round-trip and hodl through the cycle. Got heavy tech exposure too; I’m split 50/50 crypto/tech, so bag-holding a couple years and margin-covering bills is no problem.
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