My thoughts on where we are in the bull cycle to a friend:
Iām all in the market at this point, no cap.
I just canāt picture this bull run wrapping up anytime soon. Not with gold sitting where it is and tech stocks exploding like they have. Cryptoās gonna chase that momentum hard. This macro setup is the strongest Iāve seen in years.
Russell 2000 smashing all-time highs, stuff like $ARKK lighting up;risk-on mode is just kicking off. Wouldnāt shock me if we ride this wave all through next year.
Trumpās gonna juice everything to the max. Weāre probably headed for a massive blow-off top. Business cycleās still dragging, tons of upside potential. Those Philly Fed numbers today? Straight garbage. Theyāll crank the money printer like crazy, with all that deflation baked into the lagging data.
Itās nuts how downbeat the crypto crowd is right now; theyāve thrown in the towel and are piling into tech/AI plays and gold instead. Everyoneās chanting āno altseason incoming.ā Feels like classic mid-curve bearishness to me, jumping off too early.
I legit believe weāre on the edge of full parabola mode. Volās spiking hard, VIX climbing, big crypto swings ahead. Fearās everywhere. Folks screaming āstock bubbleā left and right. Shitās about to go insane in 2026z Maybe Iāve ODād on that bull copium. But Iām going all-in, no regrets.
Snagged a bunch of $BMNR shares and $ETHA March calls today (figuring $ETH hits at least 8k by then, maybe 15-20k cycle peak). Thatās my mindset. BTC should cling to its MAs too. OI and leverage got wrecked already. Fundingās flipped negative, basically paying you to lever up. Greed/fear gauge dipped into fear mode today.
Just my take, but Mark Newton (Tom Leeās quant wizard) sees markets grinding up till November, maybe a sideways dip mid-month, then pure euphoria into year-end. Heās calling BTC 150k and ETH 8k; Tom Leeās at 250k BTC and 10-12k ETH. Dudeās been in god-mode on market calls since early 2023.
I view all this as a timing game, like Russian roulette with the markets. Year-end feels like a slam-dunk bet. If parabola hits, Iāll dial back the leverage hard. Then it stretches out month by month, riskier each time. Planning major profit-taking by April at the soonest. But if Iām dead wrong, Iāll ride the round-trip and hodl through the cycle. Got heavy tech exposure too; Iām split 50/50 crypto/tech, so bag-holding a couple years and margin-covering bills is no problem.
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