Not-so-daily Vol 2025-11-10 Retrospective : Complexity Killed the cat. I have a pretty complex system with cross-hedged longs and shorts and an ever-changing things I'm watching out for. Over the weekend, that complexity bit me on my ass. Over the past week I was about L/S 1.5-2.5:1 I was fairly fairly certain BTC had bottomed, but my long-tail altcoin short positions got brutally squeezed; namely 0G and MYX. 0g ripped 66% from lows with funding hitting the max at -5000% annualized. This chewed-into a bunch of profits and I ended up paying am arm and a leg in funding too. Lesson : Never fall in love with your shorts. Actionables : I think if I wanted to hold shorts, I should have rotated into ETH or SOL as they are harder to squeeze after seeing multiple long-tail alts get squeezed. Long-tail shorts are cute until they cost you near seven figures. Moving Forward Nailed both the BTC and HYPE local bottom here. BTC entry : 100,691 (Fresh) HYPE entry : 36.5429 (Added) Also got some good entry longs on BNB and XPL BNB : 932.0389 XPL : 0.26854 These are pretty comfy entries for a short swing back at an attempt towards BTC ATHs. Below is the current pattern that it could follow. Positives - 2k stimmy check - Gov re-opening - Capitulation(glassnode) : the magnitude of the capitulation around 100k BTC is similar to 2024 July around 55k. It was followed by a +20% reversal, which is what I'm targeting here. Negatives - Four-year cycle OG supply - No systematic/structural bidder in sight(esp DATs) Considering the above, I think we are due for one of those "WE'RE BACK" kind of rallies. Currently leaning towards a rejection and a bit more chop though, so TP the longs near highs. Positioning L/S heavily long 5:1 Main Longs : BTC HYPE Smaller Longs : BNB XPL ZEC SOL New week, new opportunities. See y'all in the books!